Random Posts: June 2010

Look at how many draws there have been in the past World Cups (statistics are below). With the draw priced at +200 or better for most games, it seems like a good idea to chase draws, at least for the beginning.

The most simplified version of the chase system is to progressively increase your bet after each loss. Most people just say to double the previous bet, but that's because people are stupid. Calculating the correct value of the next bet is ridiculously simple. (Doubling your bet is only correct when the next selection is priced at +100.)

With any given bet, the idea is that you want to win back all of your losses plus a small profit. Figure out what that number is first.

Pretend that you've lost $3.52 so far and you want to make a $1.00 profit for this current round. You want to bet enough so that you win $4.52.

Once you know how much you want to win, use the line to figure out how much you should bet.

There are two ways this system can fail: either we run out of money or run out of draws. To make sure we don’t run out of money, we look at how many consecutive non-draws we can sustain. To make sure we don’t run out of draws, we look at past World Cup results.

Suppose you have a $85 bankroll and start with an initial bet of $1 every round. If you double your bet each time, you only have 6 trials before you blow it all. The probability that you lose 8 consecutive coin flips is 1 in 64. (If you make two bets per day using this system, you're bound to go bankrupt in a month!)

But because the draw is priced so high, you don't double your bet each time. This drastically slows down how quickly your bets increase and it gives you many more chances to succeed. Use that same example: you have a $85 bankroll and start with an initial bet of $1 every round. If the average line that you're betting on is +220, then you get 11 chances before you blow it all.

It looks like we won’t run out of money.

But will we run out of draws?

Since 1966, the earliest we saw the final draw was in the fifth-to-last game in 2002. Since the octofinals (round of 16) were introduced to the tournament in 1986, there has been at least four draws each time in the knockout stages (round of 16 and beyond). Since this is the case, it seems reasonable that there will be at least one draw in the knockout stage. So if we quit after the group stages, we should be in good shape.

Another minor problem is that during the span of matches #33-48 (the final part of the group stages), matches are played two-at-a-time. For matches #1-32 and matches #49-64, all matches are one-at-a-time.

The chances of failure are very slim. The only problem with this system, like any chase system, is that the consequences of failure are catastrophic and the potential gains are minimal.

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1966 World Cup: 6 draws in 32 matches

Group stages: 5 draws in 24 matches

Quarterfinals: 0 draws in 4 matches

Semifinals: 0 draws in 2 matches

Third/Finals: 1 draw in 2 matches

Last draw: Match 32 of 32

1970 World Cup: 8 draws in 32 matches

Group stages: 5 draws in 24 matches

Quarterfinals: 2 draws in 4 matches

Semifinals: 1 draw in 2 matches

Third/Finals: 0 draws in 2 matches

Last draw: Match 30 of 32

1974 World Cup: 10 draws in 38 matches

First group stages: 9 draws in 24 matches

Second group stages: 1 draw in 12 matches

Third/Finals: 0 draws in 2 matches

Last draw: Match 34 of 38

1978 World Cup: 10 draws in 38 matches

First group stages: 6 draws in 24 matches

Second group stages: 3 draws in 12 matches

Third/Finals: 1 draw in 2 matches

Last draw: Match 38 of 38

1982 World Cup: 16 draws in 52 matches

First group stages: 12 draws in 36 matches

Second group stages: 3 draws in 12 matches

Semfinals: 1 draw in 2 matches

Third/Finals: 0 draws in 2 matches

Last draw: Match 50 of 52

1986 World Cup: 17 draws in 52 matches

Group stages: 12 draws in 36 matches

Octofinals: 1 draw in 8 matches

Quarterfinals: 3 draws in 4 matches

Semifinals: 0 draws in 2 matches

Third/Finals: 1 draw in 2 matches

Last draw: Match 51 of 52

1990 World Cup: 16 draws in 52 matches

Group stages: 8 draws in 36 matches

Octofinals: 4 draws in 8 matches

Quarterfinals: 2 draws in 4 matches

Semfinals: 2 draws in 2 matches

Third/Finals: 0 draws in 2 matches

Last draw: Match 50 of 52

1994 World Cup: 12 draws in 52 matches

Group stages: 8 draws in 36 matches

Octofinals: 2 draws in 8 matches

Quarterfinals: 1 draw in 4 matches

Semifinals: 0 draws in 2 matches

Third/Finals: 1 draw in 2 matches

Last draw: Match 52 of 52

Starting in 1998, the rules of the FIFA World Cup were changed to the current format. The rule changes enforced in 1998 are as follows. The field was expanded to 32 teams. During group stages, a win was changed from two points to three points. This was done in an effort to reduce the number of draws by giving a greater reward for a win. But it hasn’t helped.

1998 World Cup: 19 draws in 64 matches

Group stages: 15 draws in 48 matches

Octofinals: 2 draws in 8 matches

Quarterfinals: 1 draw in 4 matches

Semifinals: 1 draw in 2 matches

Third/Finals: 0 draws in 2 matches

Last draw: Match 61 of 64

2002 World Cup: 17 draws in 64 matches

Group stages: 14 draws in 48 matches

Octofinals: 3 draws in 8 matches

Quarterfinals: 2 draws in 4 matches

Semifinals: 0 draws in 2 matches

Third/Finals: 0 draws in 2 matches

Last draw: Match 60 of 64

2006 World Cup: 17 draws in 64 matches

Group stages: 11 draws in 48 matches

Octofinals: 2 draws in 8 matches

Quarterfinals: 2 draws in 4 matches

Semifinals: 1 draw in 2 matches

Third/Finals: 1 draw in 2 matches

Last draw: Match 64 of 64

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